In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, statistics, economics, and finance to physics and computer science. This book tells the story of ten great ideas about chance and the thinkers who developed them, tracing the philosophical implications of these ideas as well as their mathematical impact. Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms begin with Girolamo Cardano, a sixteenth-century physician, mathematician, and professional gambler who helped develop the idea that chance actually can be measured. They describe how later thinkers showed how the judgment of chance also can be measured, how frequency is related to chance, and how chance, judgment, and frequency could be unified. Diaconis and Skyrms explain how Thomas Bayes laid the foundation of modern statistics, and they explore David Hume's problem of induction, Andrey Kolmogorov's general mathematical framework for probability, the application of computability to chance, and why chance is essential to modern physics. A final idea - that we are psychologically predisposed to error when judging chance - is taken up through the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
"In this attractively written book, which is rigorous yet informal, Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms dispel the confusion about chance and randomness. They range from coin tosses to particle physics and show how chance and probability baffled the best minds for centuries. I cannot imagine a more accessible account of these deep and difficult ideas."--Jon Elster, Columbia University and Collège de France
Autor Persi Diaconis
Autor Brian Skyrms
Data premiery rynkowej 02.01.2018
Liczba stron 272
Product type Książka
Wielkość 239 x 164 x 21 mm
Ciężar produktu 620 g
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